Estimating the economic impact of large hydropower projects: a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium analysis

Abstract In response to rapidly growing energy demands, Chinese authorities plan invest more in hydropower development. However, there are concerns about the possible effects on macroeconomy. This paper uses SinoTERM, a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of economy, analyze economic impact large development projects. The features regional labor market dynamics and an electricity subdivision module with substitutability between various types generation. results suggest that will boost growth project region. Most sectors region benefit from such as other services, health, education, while some suffer loss output because substantial increase real wages. For national, every 10,000 yuan investment can drive national GDP 1,000 yuan, cost is expected be recovered ten years. By end 2040, wage around 0.16% higher than baseline scenario. could only justified if net environmental benefits outweigh this loss.